Paradigm shift. Pretty cool to be part of another, huh? But also; scary, lots of big unknowns and the rate of change is like nothing I’ve ever experienced before.
Yes - I’m talking about AI. But this post will be about some ideas how to navigate this change, trying to calm ourselves a bit and, quite frankly, give some comfort. Hopefully.
Someone asked me a question just as I left the office this Friday. The question was really good and the person showed genuine worry. I’m sure that person was not the only one. At least one more share the feelings. Me.
I wanted to share my response, a bit embroidered, here. The question was basically this, but better formulated:
Marcus, how do you stay positive in the light of all potential downsides of AI?
The background was that I had just shared some stories from speaking at Tech Arena — an event packed with AI stuff. It was a really positive vibe in there, but dear God so many new things, and big changes. My head was spinning.
I shared that and in doing so probably contributed to the feeling of overwhelming and scare (What? You haven’t tried Ralph Loops, it’s several weeks old?!)
I don’t know if I am that positive really, but I’m old. I’ve been 3-4 of these paradigm shifts (the .com boom, the cloud, agile, the tab/spaces wars - I’ve been around). Even if I’ve never had a clear plan going into any of these paradigm shifts, I’ve seen things that works better than others, when it comes to navigating uncertainty.
Being IN a paradigm shift is scary**
Acknowledge that. We don’t know what the future holds. Let me say that again; we DO NOT know how this will play out. No one. On the planet. That is scary. It’s ok to be scare, worried, annoyed and confused. And it’s ok to be kind to people around you that feels like that around you.
I’m worried, confused and scared too. I kinda like refactoring code, will that go away? Is Agile even a thing in the AI-infused future? Or Consulting?
It’s scary stuff to think about.
Feeling bad yet? :) Ok - here’ comes the comfort-part.
However, in none of these shifts that I have been through - it has never been as bad as the worst I thought. And never as good as the best I thought. Some ideas that I thought was awesome didn’t stick. Some tools that sucked did stick (looking at you JIRA). You will learn things that will not become anything good (huh, tabs are better… who knew) - but you have learned in the process. The learning was the thing. Speaking of.
Our profession is learning
Both as product developers (in the wider sense of the word), and consultants. The tools, ways, ideas and needs are ever changing. We have chosen to be in school for ever. Welcome!
We need to keep learning in the paradigm shift too. But when you do - learn deeper, reflect and think deeply. Use the tool, but focus on the practice. Do the practice but try to understand the principle behind it.
For example; so Ralph loop is a new thing that might be a big thing. Or not. Learn about Ralph loops (the tool), use it in Claude Code (the tool), but when you do - think about HOW you are using it (the practice). Then, after you used it for awhile - think about WHY they invented the Ralph Loop (the principle); what problems did they want to solve, why was that a problem, which ideas led them to come up with Ralph Loop as an idea.
By lifting yourself to the principle-level of any practice and idea you will gain a super power in understanding the next tool or practice easier, and faster. Most of the ideas that pops up builds on previous ideas and concepts - so by understanding the concepts you are future proofing yourself.
But you will have to Keep learning. This can be done by reading (listening or watching) something, but I’ve found that reflecting on you practice will help you know what to learn.
Also; the best way to learn is to share. Write a blog, as if someone was reading (I did for the first 8 years of my blog existence), or use an AI as a learning partner, or better yet make a presentation and share it. Teaching is the best way to learn deeper.
Let me start by sharing - here’s a great talk that I’ve used to think differently about uncertainty.
Jevons paradox
Let’s get some comfort history and people even older than I.
Have you met William Stanley Jevons? He’s an economist that, in 1865, was going through a paradigm shift like we are now. Someone invented the steam engine and it was considered, rightly, a big threat to manual labor. It promised to replace ALL WORKERS EVERYWHERE, no one will ever have to work in the same way again, everyone will be unemployed (<= this is me being liberal with history, but you see the similarities, right?)
In 1865, Jevons noticed that when the steam engine got way more efficient at using coal, total coal consumption didn’t go down — it skyrocketed. Because coal was now cheaper per unit of useful work, people found way more things to use it for. The paradox is that making a resource more efficient to use can actually increase overall demand for it, because the drop in cost opens up a flood of new applications.
AI makes “cognitive work” dramatically more efficient. So the fear is that we need fewer humans. But if Jevons holds, the opposite happens — because it’s now cheaper and faster to build software, analyze data, write content, explore ideas… the demand for those things explodes. More products get built. More experiments get run. More ideas get explored. The total amount of “cognitive work” goes up, not down.
In short, history (and Mr Jevons) suggests that when you make something dramatically cheaper, you don’t get less of it — you get wildly more of it, in ways no one predicted.
Stay positive
Staying positive has value in itself. If you go in trying to find the good, joy and positive vibes you will see other things than if you going in hating the idea. This is true to a point; you need to combine the positiveness with a healthy skepticism. But I think positive with skepticism, will get you to a better place than negative with skepticism.
Our thoughts can actually shape our future, like that. Be a positive change. Focus on the good. You don’t need to not learn the bad - that will take care of itself. When you see someone around you struggling, pull them up. Maybe you have another spin on it that can help them. Tomorrow they will help you.
Being through something hard is easier when you are more people. Looking for better will make it easier than looking for worse.
Outro
You are probably already ahead, just by feeling a bit worried and confused. You have already started to reflect. Good on you - this is the start of improving.
Let me share what I shared with each class at School of Applied Technology, where I was head of curriculum (headmaster for normal people) for 5 years. On their first and their last day I repeated these approaches to work, learning and people around you:
- Be curious - our job is to learn. Keep learning. It’s fun - imagine that we live in a time where we can learn new things happening every day. I much rather be there than in a world where it’s all the same.
- Be humble - you don’t know everything. There might be better ways. Look for them. Understand them. Take help. Also - you probably know more than others in some areas. Help out, learn by sharing.
- Be kind - others does not know what you know. Share, help and support. Treat their confusion, worry and sadness with empathy and kindness. That is good for them. And soon you might need it right back.
My friend, asking the initial question; we’ll get through this one too. I’m actually positive right now, that it will be something great in the end. Looking forward to learning more with you and others.